Author Topic: Dual Wielding Odds  (Read 177 times)

Kadrok

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Dual Wielding Odds
« on: December 17, 2015, 08:19:41 PM »
Question for someone who took "Mathematician" as a trait ("Gambler" might work in a pinch, though I used to be a Croupier and I'm asking the question, so I don't think it counts personally).

Suppose I have 8 Action Dice, 6 from Physique, and 2 from Traits. Suppose also that I do not care about defence because my Lurcher Plate and Ironsliding out of range when necessary is totally rad.

Suppose also I have the Dual wielding stunt, and a pair of Sexy Sterrions in my hands. Mathematically speaking, which gives me better odds of hitting an opponent (with either or both attack), two attacks with 4 dice each, or one attack with 8 dice?

How does this change with only 6 Action Dice, and a division of 3 for each attack?

And if the chance of hitting is lowered, is the reduced chance of hitting negligible enough that the chance of hitting with both attacks makes it worth it?
Interesting discussion, but I think rule of cool could reasonably trump mere science in a game about magic powers.   :P

Herowannabe

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Re: Dual Wielding Odds
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2015, 09:45:45 PM »
 While I don't have the "Mathematician" or "Gambler" Traits, I DO have the "Masochist" trait (not the sexual kind, more like the "Hey, why don't I take on yet another huge time-consuming task? I already have more on my plate than one person could possibly complete in a year, why not add more?" kind of Masochism), so let's take a stab at it. I'm going to go ahead and rely on the "Chance of Success" chart on page 454 of the MAG. To the spreadsheets!

EDIT: Partial success... So I was able to easily figure out how to tweak the difficulty chart to see the odds of taking two shots against the same difficulty (spoiler: it's worse than taking 1 shot with double the number of dice). Here's what I've got so far

So, the first chart is basically the same on that's on page 454 of the MAG, but I added a column that shows your odds of failure.

The second chart is the odds of taking two shots against the same difficulty. So for example, if you have 6 dice and you're shooting at someone behind partial cover (say difficulty 2 to hit him). If you take 1 shot with 6 dice (first chart) you have an 81% chance of success. If you dual wield and take 2 shots with 3 dice each (2nd chart) you have a 51% chance of succeeding with at least one of the shots. So in this case you're better off not dual wielding.

ONE ROLL                  
Chance of Success, by Difficulty
                  
Dice Pool   Fail    1        2        3        4        5
2                86%   14%   11%   8%   6%   3%
3                63%   37%   30%   22%   15%   7%
4                39%   61%   50%   38%   26%   13%
5                20%   80%   68%   53%   37%   20%
6                9%   91%   81%   66%   48%   26%
7                3%   97%   89%   78%   58%   33%
8                1%   99%   94%   84%   67%   40%
9                1%   99%   97%   90%   74%   46%
10              1%   99%   98%   93%   80%   52%
                  
TWO ROLLS                  
Chance of Success, by Difficulty   
               
Dice Pool   Fail          1             2             3             4             5
2                73.96%   26.04%   20.79%   15.36%   11.64%   5.91%
3                39.69%   60.31%   51.00%   39.16%   27.75%   13.51%
4                15.21%   84.79%   75.00%   61.56%   45.24%   24.31%
5                4.00%   96.00%   89.76%   77.91%   60.31%   36.00%
6                0.81%   99.19%   96.39%   88.44%   72.96%   45.24%
7                0.09%   99.91%   98.79%   95.16%   82.36%   55.11%
8                0.01%   99.99%   99.64%   97.44%   89.11%   64.00%
9                0.01%   99.99%   99.91%   99.00%   93.24%   70.84%
10              0.01%   99.99%   99.96%   99.51%   96.00%   76.96%


The problem is that usually you're not shooting against a set difficulty, you're shooting against the target's defense dice, so if you split your attack dice into 2 piles he has to split his defense dice into 2 piles or gamble that you'll miss with the shoot he chooses not to block. That becomes quite a bit hard to calculate...
« Last Edit: December 17, 2015, 10:50:45 PM by Herowannabe »

Kadrok

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Re: Dual Wielding Odds
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2015, 11:12:37 PM »
Coolness. Thanks. Once again I'm weirded out that Wax is statted in the book as having 3 Physique, and the Dual Wielding stunt. I don't think I'd go anywhere near the Dual Wielding stunt without at least 6 Physique and 2 Traits, or some power than improved my shooting (fSteel is easiest, but also aPewter and aTin or aAtium in some weirdness world)

Like, when Wax dualwields is he dividing his 4 dice (3 Physique+Dawnshot) into two groups of 2 and hoping one of them will connect? Or does he know something we don't? Maybe he just fights a lot of people with Burdens?

EDIT: Sorry. I don't mean to complain. I didn't start this thread as a pretense to discuss Wax; it's actually for Sate, my aIron/fZinc. The "Sparker Shot" stunt makes me want to dual wield. There's something cool about using enhanced mental speed to track and shoot multiple targets with my Custom Vindications (Sterrion 36 with Lurcher Safety, Invarian Chambers and some other cool customization... Magnum?)

Though now that I reread "Sparker Shot" I see that it also works for Fast Aiming. Sick! Maybe I'll just have one gun and abuse Auto-Aiming?

EDIT 2: Oh my goodness. While "Marksman" doesn't work with "Fast Aiming" there's nothing about Tinsights and Perfect Balance not working. THIS IS GOING TO BE SO RAD! Forget Dualwielding Vindications, I'm going to go with a Custom Autoloader with Tinsights, Perfect Balance and Lurcher Safety, and take "Sparker Shot" and "Fast Aiming". WOOOOOH!

EDIT 3: Darn. I found the fine print on Tinsights. Looks like the Rad Police got there before I could ;) I guess an automatic -2 to my opponents defence outcome at the cost of 5 Mental Speed each shot was too much Radness. Perfect Balance is still good though, it's just not as Rad as the -2. I guess an automatic -1 to my opponents defence for 5 Mental Speed each shot is pretty rad.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2015, 11:41:48 PM by Kadrok »
Interesting discussion, but I think rule of cool could reasonably trump mere science in a game about magic powers.   :P

Kadrok

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Re: Dual Wielding Odds
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2016, 05:01:52 PM »
On the topic of Dual Wielding once again, can I dual wield AND use the Steelrunner Shot Stunt? If I can, can I use the Steelrunner Shot Stunt Twice?

Here's how I see it working: I have 8 action dice for this action (6 Physique+2 for my 'Ambidextrous' and 'Gun Kata' traits). I split my dice pool into two pools of 4 to fire my twin Custom Autoloaders at two different targets. I then spend 40 charges of Physical Speed to split those pools further into four pools of 2 to fire each of my Custom Autoloaders twice, hitting four different targets, and tap enough Physical Speed to make those four pools meaningful (let's say I go all out and tap 32 charges to bring each of the rolls up to 10 dice).

Okay, four attacks in one turn is a bit amazing, but it cost me 72 charges of stored speed, required a Steel rating of 8(!), full Physique, two traits and two stunts. Plus my action occurred late in the turn order (as if I had 4 action dice, unless I tapped even more Speed to go earlier). Not an unreasonable trick for that kind of investment I would think, and with that kind of charge investment it's certainly not going to occur all the time... unless I'm playing a Steel Compounder, and if that's the case then all bets are pretty much off anyway! So I think it's okay. Plus... rule of cool!

Thoughts?
Interesting discussion, but I think rule of cool could reasonably trump mere science in a game about magic powers.   :P

Dreamstreamer

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Re: Dual Wielding Odds
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2016, 09:39:25 AM »
Considering the heavy investment, I'd allow it. Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum. Four targets? I hope you got the drop on them, 'cuz those are bad odds right from the get go!

lord Claincy Ffnord

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Re: Dual Wielding Odds
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2016, 07:22:39 PM »
Seems fair enough to me. The cost and requirements are enough to balance it I think.